Don't miss these crypto catalysts that will move the market

Want to start a newsletter today?

Crypto Down Under is powered by beehiiv. If you want access to the amazing tools available in email to help you launch, scale, and monetize your newsletter, use this link to sign up!

Before I start, I'd like to ask a favor:

If you enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to a friend who might enjoy it as well.

Thank you! 🙏

Good morning everyone,

Bitcoin has rallied around 11% over the past few days.

The cloud that has been hanging over the market is starting to lift.

The main reason is that the German state of Saxony has finished selling its Bitcoin.

The state had seized nearly 50,000 Bitcoins from an illegal streaming provider and had to hold an "emergency sale" under Section 111p of the German Code of Criminal Procedure because the asset price had fallen by more than 10%. The sale generated EUR 2.6 billion.

With the Mt. Gox repayments, there is further selling pressure that could weigh on the market. The now-defunct crypto exchange is about to start repaying victims of a 2014 hack. At today's prices, around USD 9 billion worth of Bitcoin will be returned to owners.

The question is: will creditors sell their coins when they receive their repayments? Or will they continue to hodl? Who knows.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is not financial advice. It does not take into account your financial situation, is general in nature, and is for educational purposes only.

Also, this newsletter contains affiliate links. This means that I may receive a commission from them. But for Crypto Down Under, I only choose products I use myself and can recommend wholeheartedly. Don’t forget to do your own research.

While there's still potential selling pressure in the market, there are a lot of catalysts coming up.

I have talked about three potential catalysts that could push prices higher in the second half of the year. They are the launch of Ether ETFs in the US, potential US interest rate cuts, and the US elections. Let's go through them:

1. As previously reported, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light to Ether ETFs in May. But the ETFs haven't started trading yet. In a likely precursor to the start of trading, most applicants filed their final forms this week. Trading is expected to begin next week on Tuesday 23 July. If the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs is any guide, the Ether ETFs will lead to significant price appreciation. Bitcoin has risen around 45% since the launch of ETFs in the US in January.

2. Market participants are currently pricing in a 98.1% probability that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will start cutting interest rates in September. Of course, the odds are only a snapshot of current sentiment and could change. But if inflation continues to cool, we can expect a rate cut in September, which will boost assets such as stocks and crypto.

3. As previously reported, the Republican candidate for the US election, Donald Trump, has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, and the entire Republican Party has adopted crypto-friendly policies in its agenda. Following last weekend's assassination attempt, Trump's odds of victory have skyrocketed. On the prediction market Polymarket, people are giving Trump a 67% chance of winning. A Trump victory would be a huge boost for the entire crypto market and could bring some of the most hardened Bitcoin skeptics to their knees. Remember Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase and nemesis of Bitcoin and crypto? Well, according to Bloomberg, Trump recently said that "Jamie Dimon was, you know, very negative, and now all of a sudden he's changed his tune a little bit".

I don't know what you make of the above, but I think that "you can’t align the stars any better for a BTC price acceleration", as Dallas Mavericks minority owner and Shark Tank investor Marc Cuban recently put it.

Enjoy your weekend, everyone!

Want to store your bitcoin yourself in a cold wallet? Use the link below to purchase a Ledger Nano S Plus wallet.

Before you go, please help me get better!

Feel free to drop me an email or dm me on Instagram, LinkedIn, or Twitter with any feedback or topics you'd like to see covered in this newsletter!

Thank you!