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Good morning everyone,

On Tuesday night US Eastern Time, the documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" aired on HBO. The documentary made waves because it claimed to have identified the founder of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto.

If you're not familiar with the history of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonym of the person or group of people behind bitcoin.

Satoshi Nakamoto is the author of the bitcoin whitepaper, the paper that first outlined the technical workings of bitcoin and its monetary philosophy in 2009. Nakamoto also mined the first bitcoin block, the genesis block. He (I'm using the male pronoun because Satoshi is a male name in Japanese. I'm not suggesting that the founder of bitcoin is a man.) continued to work with other developers on bitcoin's software until 2011 when he disappeared.

Nakamoto is estimated to own around 1 million bitcoin. At today's price of around US$61,000, that's worth around US$61 billion. According to the Forbes real-time billionaires list, this would put Nakamoto in the top 25 richest people in the world.

However, Nakamoto has never sold any bitcoin.

Here are the most important questions and answers about the documentary.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is not financial advice. It does not take into account your financial situation, is general in nature, and is for educational purposes only.

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1. What does the documentary claim?

In "Money Electric", director Cullen Hoback reopens the search for Satoshi Nakamoto.

He meets with bitcoin developers and enthusiasts, trying to understand when and why they joined the bitcoin community - and whether they might actually be Satoshi Nakamoto.

Towards the end of the documentary, Hoback presents his theory. He theorizes that Canadian bitcoin developer Peter Todd is Satoshi Nakamoto.

Todd denies the claim on camera. But that hasn't stopped the documentary's marketing campaign, which claims to have uncovered Satoshi Nakamoto's identity.

If you come across video clips of Peter Todd saying "Yes, I'm Satoshi", he's not admitting to being the founder of bitcoin. He's referring to the popular belief among bitcoiners that we're all Satoshi, and that the founder of the cryptocurrency has a right to anonymity.

2. Is there evidence to support this claim?

No, there is no smoking gun, no conclusive evidence or proof.

In fact, Hoback's theory is based on speculation.

He argues that Peter Todd first posted on BitcoinTalk, the forum where bitcoin developers communicated in the early days of bitcoin, in December 2010, showing a low level of understanding of bitcoin.

But then, just three days later, Todd made a highly technical post showing a very deep understanding of bitcoin.

Hoback argues that Todd's second post was actually a continuation of one of Satoshi Nakamoto's posts.

He argues that Peter Todd is Satoshi Nakamoto, that Todd used two accounts on the BitcoinTalk forum, and that he accidentally logged into the wrong account when he made the highly technical post.

In support of his theory, he points to the fact that shortly after Peter Todd's technical post in December 2010, both Peter Todd and Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared from the forum. (Peter Todd returned to the forum in 2012.)

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3. Does the speculation at least make sense?

There are some similarities between Peter Todd and Satoshi Nakamoto.

Nakamoto used Britishisms in his writing, which could be explained by the fact that Peter Todd is Canadian.

According to programmers interviewed in the documentary, the bitcoin code doesn't look like it was written by a professional programmer, which could be explained by Peter Todd's lack of academic programming training.

I don't want to bore you with more details, but there are a few other peculiarities that could be explained by Peter Todd's biography.

On the other hand, if Peter Todd really did accidentally post something with the wrong account, why did he not just delete it?

Also, Peter Todd is only 39 years old today, which means he would have been 23 years old when he created bitcoin. The bitcoin protocol itself is relatively simple from a technical point of view. But while it's not impossible that Todd could have created the protocol at that age, it seems unlikely. That's because the economic and financial insights behind the whitepaper are far more sophisticated. It's hard to imagine that a 23-year-old could have developed such complex reasoning.

My view is: Look at the emails and forum posts Satoshi Nakamoto wrote around 2009. They are clinical, academic in style, and devoid of emotion. I find it hard to believe that a 23-year-old could have written them.

4. How did the price of bitcoin react to the documentary?

Not at all.

Bitcoin remained flat throughout the release of the documentary and didn't move much after it aired.

It dropped a bit on Wednesday, but the drop is likely related to seized crypto assets being moved to exchanges, raising concerns about potential selling pressure in the market.

5. Have there been other attempts to expose Satoshi Nakamoto?

Yes, there have.

In a high-profile article in Newsweek in March 2014, journalist Leah McGrath Goodman identified Dorian Prentice Satoshi Nakamoto, a Japanese-American man living in California whose birth name is Satoshi Nakamoto, as the Nakamoto in question.

The poor man was hounded by reporters outside his home and was pitifully clueless about bitcoin in an interview with AP.

Later on, Australian computer scientist Craig Wright claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto. But Wright was sued by bitcoin supporters, and in March 2024 a British court ruled that Wright was a fraud.

6. If the real Satoshi Nakamoto were to be revealed, would that pose a risk to bitcoin?

Yes.

Bitcoiners are usually comfortable with the fact that the founder of bitcoin is not publicly known, because it supports bitcoin's appeal as a neutral and decentralized technology that can't be influenced by any single entity.

If one or more people were proven to be the founders, it would not only undermine bitcoin's perception as a decentralized technology, but it would also give bitcoin a face and make it vulnerable to all sorts of attacks. It would certainly scare off investors.

Similarly, if Satoshi Nakamoto ever sold his bitcoin, it would also shake investor confidence.

7. Can we expect more speculation about Satoshi Nakamoto's identity?

For sure, the identity of the founder of the tenth-largest asset by market cap continues to capture our imagination. There will be more articles, documentaries, and books, which will make more or less substantiated claims.

But most of the theories will hinge on the belief that only a very small amount of notable people in the world are capable of building bitcoin.

The smartest thoughts on the "Money Electric" documentary I came across this week are from a Twitter user called Pledditor. I’ll share with you what I believe is the most important part:

Have a great weekend, everyone!

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